"Global Warming: Can Climate Models Be Trusted?"
In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st
century, we must confront
not only computer limitations on the affordable
resolution of global
models, but also a lack of physical realism in
attempting to simulate key
processes. Until we are able to incorporate
adequate treatments of
critical elements of the entire biogeophysical
climate system, our models
will remain subject to these uncertainties, and
our scenarios of future
climate change, both anthropogenic and natural,
will not fully meet the
requirements of either policymakers or the public.
The areas of
most-needed model improvements are thought to
include air-sea exchanges,
ocean dynamics, land surface processes, ice and
snow physics, hydrologic
cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols
and cloud-radiation
interactions.