November 18, 2005
NORDBERG MEMORIAL LECTURE
Institute for Space Studies
New York, New York
There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Interference with
Global temperature is now
near the peak of the current interglacial period. Additional
global warming of more than 1 degree Celsius could make the earth
warmer than it has been in more than a million years.
I will argue that such a global warming level would lead to
large changes in sea level, the arctic, and regional climate in
general, changes that most people would consider "dangerous". The
earth is now out of energy balance, implying that additional warming of
½ degree Celsius is already "in the pipeline". All
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for the 21st
century yield global warming exceeding 1 degree Celsius.
Greenhouse gas emissions from China and other developing countries are
Is disastrous global climate change now unavoidable? This is
the topic to be discussed.