Scientific Colloquium
April 21,  2021, 3:00 p.m.
Online Presentation

                SEAN FLEMING     
                U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

"The Physics of Predicting Rivers: How We Do It, and Why It's Important" 

Rivers are foundational to human civilization. They define our national borders, enable navigation, and provide drinking water, irrigation water, hydroelectric power, recreation, water supplies for traditional and high-tech manufacturing, and homes for ecosystems. Conversely, floods are devastating; droughts can be even worse. And with growing demands made on our rivers by expanding populations, and more uncertain water supplies under looming climate changes, understanding how rivers work and predicting what they'll do next is more crucial than ever. In this talk, we'll start by exploring some general questions about how watersheds work, like how the world's water is connected in a tremendous global cycle, why a river can flood one year and dry up the next, and what urbanization does to rivers. Then we'll chat about river prediction, focusing on river flow forecasting over timeframes ranging from hours to decades. We'll look at examples of how different computational approaches are being used to make those projections, from virtual rivers rendered in silicon (process-based simulation models) to cyborg hydrologists (artificial intelligence), and what types of information these models need to work, like field scientists dropped off by helicopter on remote mountaintops to collect data and satellite imaging of watersheds from space.

About the Speaker:

Dr. Fleming is the Technical Lead for Applied R&D at the US Department of Agriculture's National Water and Climate Center in Portland, Oregon. He has affiliate faculty postings at Oregon State University and the University of British Columbia, and prior affiliations include, among others, the Meteorological Service of Canada, BC Hydro, and Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sean has over two decades of public, private, and nonprofit-sector experience in technical, field, and managerial roles across several countries. His degrees are in geophysics, geology, and civil engineering, with expertise in machine learning, nonlinear dynamics, hydrology, glaciology, and climate science. Sean's work focuses on bridging gaps between theory and practice. He is also actively engaged in science outreach, including a popular-science book published by Princeton University Press, essays in Scientific American and Wired, and public talks at the Smithsonian and elsewhere.

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