Scientific Colloquium
January 23, 2009
RON GELARO
GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER
"Atmospheric Data
Assimilation and Observing System Science"
Data assimilation is the process
by which observations are combined with a prognostic model to provide
the best estimate (analysis) of the current state of a physical
system. Observational information, which tends to be
irregular in space and time, can thus be made available in a regular or
gridded form required for many applications. The process is far
more complex than a simple interpolation of information from one point
to another, as it depends on aspects such as the errors of the various
observation types, imperfections in the prognostic model and the
physical relationships between different atmospheric variables; e.g.,
pressure and wind speed.
Current atmospheric data assimilation systems used in weather and
climate prediction incorporate information from millions of
observations on a regular basis—typically every 6 or 12 hours—to
provide the best possible estimate of the current state of the
atmosphere. The resulting atmospheric analyses are used to
initialize forecasts, produce historical climate data sets and provide
a dynamically consistent framework for studying specific atmospheric
processes and phenomena. This talk provides an overview of the
atmospheric data assimilation problem in general terms, examines some
common uses and limitations of current atmospheric analyses, and
describes emerging techniques to help measure and understand the
impacts of currently assimilated observations and plan for the
development of future observing systems.